Last Week in Bitcoin: The November Chill Deepens
If the crypto markets were hoping for a harvest festival, they received a famine instead. Bitcoin spent the week languishing under intense sell pressure, shedding the vestiges of its October euphoria to confront a starker reality. The asset struggled—and failed—to reclaim the psychological $90,000 fortress, a level that now looms overhead like a ceiling rather than a floor. With the “November Crash” narrative firmly taking root, the market seems to have traded its “digital gold” safe-haven status for a tight, nervous correlation with volatile U.S. tech stocks. It appears the only thing accumulating this week was anxiety.
Price Action: Gravity Takes Over
Bitcoin is currently changing hands at approximately $87,200, representing a decline of roughly 6.8% over the last seven days. Since the dizzying heights of the ~$126,000 all-time high in October, the asset has corrected by nearly 24%.
Technically, the structure is undeniably bearish. The inability to hold $90,000 has emboldened sellers, while data suggests that losses are concentrating almost exclusively during U.S. trading hours. This implies that the very institutions credited with fueling the 2024 rally are now the ones heading for the exits.
The Week’s Top Developments
1. Washington Hits the Snooze Button
Optimism regarding the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act hit a wall this week. Reports confirmed that the legislation, once the darling of regulatory hopefuls, has stalled in the U.S. Senate. Key legislators have signaled a delay until early 2026, effectively dashing hopes for a year-end regulatory tailwind. The market abhors a vacuum, and the absence of legislative clarity has injected a fresh dose of uncertainty into an already fragile environment. The SEC’s “Project Crypto” continues unabated, emphasizing substance over form—a polite way of saying the enforcement hammers remain raised.
2. The Great ETF Unwind
Perhaps the most sobering data point comes from the spot ETF market, which is witnessing a historic exodus. November is on track to be the worst month for flows since the products launched. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), usually the bellwether for institutional appetite, recorded a single-day outflow exceeding $500 million. With total monthly net outflows approaching $3 billion, it is clear that the institutional “tourists” who arrived for the price appreciation are packing their bags now that the volatility has returned.
3. “Strategy” Goes Quiet
MicroStrategy, recently rebranded as “Strategy”—perhaps to save on ink costs—has been uncharacteristically quiet. While the firm acquired a modest ~397 BTC early in the month, on-chain data reveals a sharp 93% drop in purchasing volume compared to this time last year. This liquidity void is palpable. Without the relentless bid from the Virginia-based software firm, the market lacks a key psychological backstop. Speculation is mounting that the company may be facing capital constraints or simply reaching a saturation point.
Looking Ahead
The immediate outlook requires a defensive posture. Analysts are now eyeing the $81,000 - $83,000 zone as the next critical line in the sand. A breach there could invite a capitulation event toward the mid-$70ks.
However, it isn't all doom and gloom. Metaplanet, often dubbed the “Asia MicroStrategy,” is bucking the trend, raising $130 million to continue its accumulation. Furthermore, the derivatives market shows a “flush” of leveraged longs, suggesting the market is becoming less frothy.
We are witnessing a “Great Decoupling” from the political euphoria of early 2025. Investors are realizing that legislative gridlock survives any administration change. For now, the recommendation is patience; let the falling knives hit the floor before attempting to catch them.